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Is Rice Ripe for a Fall's Fall?

Rough rice price rose from mid-May to mid-August, then retraced a lil' bit and right now it seems about to draw a textbook double top. The August 11 upthrust high volume marked the definitive sellers' entry into the scene and the recent little rally with decreasing volume seems to confirm the possibility of an impending double top.

rough rice daily chart

Only two additional observations: firstly, COT index tells us that commercials violently sold rough rice during the may-august rally and now have reached an extreme bearish stance; secondly, the rough rice seasonal chart shows a possible top around the end of september which this year gives the impression of being able to occur well in advance.

rough rice seasonality chart

In light of all this, we will wait for a clear inversion sign in the daily chart and possibly short it for a nice run till the 11.30 point of control or even till the 10.675 support. As always, this is not a trade solicitation, if you trade it's your own decision... but, anyway, let's hope a good harvest!
Is Cocoa's rally coming to an end?
Due to production losses in Ghana, the cocoa future scored an impressive rally, coming close to the september 2014 high around 3390. RIght now, anyway, the rally seems to have lost much of its momentum: volume doesn't favor anymore the rising price, last Friday a clear upthrust bar appeared and a reliable volume indicator such as the Volume Zone Oscillator is currently showing a strong bearish divergence. Last but not least, the commercials' stance as reported in COT, the ratio with inverse correlated bond future and the Put/Call ratio, they're all definitely bearish. Just a caveat: rallies in cocoa are tradionally very resilient and the seasonality usually tops in august/september, not in july. So, let's trade it with caution...

cocoa daily chart 23.06.2015

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