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Is Rice Ripe for a Fall's Fall?

Rough rice price rose from mid-May to mid-August, then retraced a lil' bit and right now it seems about to draw a textbook double top. The August 11 upthrust high volume marked the definitive sellers' entry into the scene and the recent little rally with decreasing volume seems to confirm the possibility of an impending double top.

rough rice daily chart

Only two additional observations: firstly, COT index tells us that commercials violently sold rough rice during the may-august rally and now have reached an extreme bearish stance; secondly, the rough rice seasonal chart shows a possible top around the end of september which this year gives the impression of being able to occur well in advance.

rough rice seasonality chart

In light of all this, we will wait for a clear inversion sign in the daily chart and possibly short it for a nice run till the 11.30 point of control or even till the 10.675 support. As always, this is not a trade solicitation, if you trade it's your own decision... but, anyway, let's hope a good harvest!

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