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Soybean looks ready for the seasonal turn

Volume analysis, seasonality trend, commitment of traders, forward curve... everything conspires to a major soybeans seasonal top.

A possible strategy? One could simply short it now or wait for a retest of the top after the first leg down. Of course, as always, this is not a trade solicitation and if you trade you do it at your own risk and responsibility.
Some setups lead us to believe that there is a possible short opportunity on June 2016 Japanese Yen Futures or, if you prefere, a long opportunity on USD/JPY.


Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the price is testing the latest top, facing a resistance level. The February 11 candle, according to the Volume Spread Analysis, can be defined as pseudo upthrust; that of February 24, which is a shooting star candle, can be considered an upthrust; yesterday ended with a buying climax, that could be the warning sign of a bearish reversal pattern.

japanese yen chart pseudo upthrust buying climax resistance bearish trading for purpose

Commitment of Traders

If we look at the COT Index, the strong commercials bearish stance could confirm our guess.

japanese yen cot commitment of traders june 2016 bearish trading for purpose

In addition to these remarks we must consider that, usually, when the price reaches this level, the Central Bank of Japan tends to moderate Yen's price.

Of course, if you are a forex trader, you can read this signal in the opposite direction for USD/JPY, with the prospect of a rebound.

Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.
Description of a special situation that recently developed in May 2016 Soybean Oil Futures with contrasting clues: price reached a resistance level and formed a shooting star / upthrust, disaggregated Commitment of Traders (COT index) could be considered bearish but seasonality is rising until the beginning of April.

So what?

We wait for a deep retracement in this market, but, as always, time will tell.

Watch the video.

soybean oil bearish video march 2016 trading for purpose

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