NOTE! This site uses cookies and similar technologies.

If you not change browser settings, you agree to it. Learn more

I understand

Is it inversion time for the january 2016 soybean meal future?

If we look at the COT Index, the commercials bullish stance could confirm our guess.

soybean meal cot

Also looking at the seasonality we see a bullish trend that would suggest a reversal.

soybean meal seasonality

Finally, looking at patterns, we can see a noticeable bullish engulfing (key reversal as well) which, according to the Volume Spread Analysis, can be defined as a 'stopping volume' bar.

soybean meal bullish engulfing stopping volume

Soybean meal provides appealing reversal signals. Maybe it would be appropriate to wait until a trendline break before entering long.
Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.


After a visible downtrend, the milk seems bottoming and ready to reverse.

A stopping volume is after a selling climax: according to the Volume Spread Analysis, we are facing signs of a reversal.
In addition, if we try to follow the Elliott waves, we may be at the end of the step number 5, waiting for a next rise, maybe a correction (a, b, c), maybe another impulse (5 waves up).
Finally, we notice that the january 2016 milk future's sizzle index is very high, amounting to 9.442.

A series of signs lead us to ask: is the Milky Way ready to turn up?

milk bottoming

Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.
After a strong pullback to test the descending 34 days sma, we might expect a decrease of bond future in the short term.
Yesterday ended with a shooting star candlestick (upthrust with extremely high volumes), which represents a possible reversal signal.

 bond shooting star upthrust

In addition, if we try to follow the Elliott waves, we can wait for the step number 5, which should be descending.

bond elliot wave

So, we can expect a decrease of bond price, in the short term, but remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

Is Rice Ripe for a Fall's Fall?

Rough rice price rose from mid-May to mid-August, then retraced a lil' bit and right now it seems about to draw a textbook double top. The August 11 upthrust high volume marked the definitive sellers' entry into the scene and the recent little rally with decreasing volume seems to confirm the possibility of an impending double top.

rough rice daily chart

Only two additional observations: firstly, COT index tells us that commercials violently sold rough rice during the may-august rally and now have reached an extreme bearish stance; secondly, the rough rice seasonal chart shows a possible top around the end of september which this year gives the impression of being able to occur well in advance.

rough rice seasonality chart

In light of all this, we will wait for a clear inversion sign in the daily chart and possibly short it for a nice run till the 11.30 point of control or even till the 10.675 support. As always, this is not a trade solicitation, if you trade it's your own decision... but, anyway, let's hope a good harvest!
Is Cocoa's rally coming to an end?
Due to production losses in Ghana, the cocoa future scored an impressive rally, coming close to the september 2014 high around 3390. RIght now, anyway, the rally seems to have lost much of its momentum: volume doesn't favor anymore the rising price, last Friday a clear upthrust bar appeared and a reliable volume indicator such as the Volume Zone Oscillator is currently showing a strong bearish divergence. Last but not least, the commercials' stance as reported in COT, the ratio with inverse correlated bond future and the Put/Call ratio, they're all definitely bearish. Just a caveat: rallies in cocoa are tradionally very resilient and the seasonality usually tops in august/september, not in july. So, let's trade it with caution...

cocoa daily chart 23.06.2015

It might as well be spring

We're all immensely devoted to Wyckoff's work, and that's why when we see one of those failed breakout he called 'springs' or 'upthrusts', we have the impression to face a more reliable than average price pattern. Right now it seems gold has precisely drawn one of those 'springs' and we wonder if this long and troubled double bottom that started last autumn is eventually bearing fruit. Let's also add that hedgers' sentiment turned quite bullish, that from end of June the seasonality will become favorable and that the put/call ratio is currently around 0.8, revealing the options traders' bullish stance. In short, it might as well be ... a bullish spring!

gold daily chart 16.6.2015

Is Natural Gas hitting the bottom?

Let's face it. We all know that we should start by analyzing the long-term timeframe, and yet, for one reason or another, we don't do it so often. The best of us systematically look at the weekly charts, few actually go higher to the monthly timeframe. Well, we do evil. For example, by looking at the monthly chart of natural gas it appears to us an interesting landscape, less visible in the lower timeframes: the price is lingering on a long-term support, and it is possibly drawing a textbook inverted head & shoulder pattern.
natural gas monthly chart
When we encounter a landscape like this, we wonder whether it is an accumulation or distribution process and, in search of an answer, we run to the Commitment of Traders Report. And, in this case, we get a confirmation of the accumulation hypothesis: the COT index shows that Commercials are bullish since a long time waiting for the rebound, Funds have been selling like crazy but now they've come full scale and, above all, the open interest is historically very low. Here, too, it looks like a textbook bullish setting.
natural gas commitment of traders june 2015
So let's look at the daily chart. Here we notice that the latest drop in prices was accompanied by a progressive decrease in volumes, a sign that sales were gradually declining in intensity. In addition, the June 4th hammer looks very much like a stopping volume bar or something similar. Evidently strong hands do not think it is appropriate to decline further. Rising days ahead?
natural gas daily chart june 8th 2015
Our Market Matrix points to the Heating Oil future as one of the most promising candidates to a leading role in the current commodities rebound. A very bullish Cot, a nicely drawn double bottom, a seasonal trend rising up to the end of September, a ratio with the dollar eager to reverse to the mean, a VSA analysis decidedly bullish and, last but not least, a recent upward breakout of a small but very clean (perfectly horizontal) congestion area. In theory, all is fine. In practice it is probably better to wait a little pullback to the compression breakout level before entering long without false modesty.

Some time ago we signaled copper was bottoming ( It definitely did. Then it encountered a strong resistance around 2.9$ and started a textbook pullback towards the 2.7$ area support. The April 14th stopping volume bar told us the pullback was ending and yesterday we had the final confirmation. Next upward leg has got a first target at 2.95$ and the final one  at Point of Control around 3.05$.

April 16th copper future graph

Seguici su Twitter


Trading for Purpose RT @ttp_mailus: Cronos Group ($CRON) flies high in Wall Street. Apparently the cannabis business pleases investors. cannabis weed Medic…
Friday, 09 March 2018 10:43
Trading for Purpose RT @ttp_mailus: FOX has just won an Oscar for 'The Shape of Water'. Is the newly formed trading range a distribution or a riaccumulation?…
Monday, 05 March 2018 12:17
Trading for Purpose RT @ttp_mailus: The results of Italian elections begin to clear up and the FtseMib index struggles not to collapse. The ascending channel,…
Monday, 05 March 2018 11:12
Trading for Purpose RT @ttp_mailus: Usually the oil stocks index turns slightly earlier than crude oil itself. Recently XLE (blue line) turned south at end of…
Thursday, 01 March 2018 14:21
Trading for Purpose RT @AlexTaylorNews: 🇬🇧 We'd like to cherry pick 🇪🇺No 🇬🇧 We'd like to pick cherries 🇪🇺No 🇬🇧We'd like to select cherries 🇪🇺No 🇬🇧 We'd like to…
Wednesday, 28 February 2018 23:06