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Is cocoa forming a base?

Commitment of Traders and wyckoff trading range analysis suggest that cocoa could be ready to rally away of the one month old accumulation base (watch the video here: Of course, as always, this is not a trade solicitation and if you trade you do it at your own risk and responsibility.
Several setups suggest that Cocoa March 2016 Futures might have reached a bottom and could be ready to reverse.

cocoa chart january 2016 trading for purpose

Volume Spread Analysis

A stopping volume is after a selling climax: according to the Volume Spread Analysis, we are facing signs of a reversal. In addition we could say that yesterday candle is a 'no supply' with possible bullish implications.

cocoa vsa selling climax stopping volume no supply trading for purpose

Commitment of Traders

If we look at the COT Index, the commercials bullish stance could confirm our guess.

cocoa cot bullish trading for purpose

The price could even decrease slightly, but the setups we have lead us to expect a bullish trend.
«Well, nobody's perfect». Therefore, remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.
The cocoa future scored an impressive rally since the beginning of october. Now, it seems the rally has reached an exhaustion point and in our opinion could begin to roll down.

First of all we can observe the pace set by the circle brackets, which shows us that we should be in proximity of a reversal point.

cocoa circle brackets

Furthermore, observing the seasonality, we note that expectations are bearish.

cocoa seasonality november

Finally, we look at candles and volumes:
- on November 12, we observe high volume appearing, with a narrow spread. This is a strong sign of weakness;
- yesterday, on November 17, we can recognize an upthrust, another clear sign of market weakness.

cocoa vsa

Cocoa could be close to a top. Do you?....
Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

1, 2, 3 pushes to a top in cocoa

Cocoa is finally reaching the level scored first in late September 2014 and later in mid July 2015.Our impression, however, is that the current rally is gradually running out of steam. Maybe it won't even be able to reach level 3400. It will stop sooner. In this video we discuss the reasons that lead us to consider a bearish trade on cocoa.
Enjoy, and in the meanwhile remember this isn't a trade solicitation.  Should you decide to trade, you'd do it under your own responsibility.

cocoa running out of steam
Is Cocoa's rally coming to an end?
Due to production losses in Ghana, the cocoa future scored an impressive rally, coming close to the september 2014 high around 3390. RIght now, anyway, the rally seems to have lost much of its momentum: volume doesn't favor anymore the rising price, last Friday a clear upthrust bar appeared and a reliable volume indicator such as the Volume Zone Oscillator is currently showing a strong bearish divergence. Last but not least, the commercials' stance as reported in COT, the ratio with inverse correlated bond future and the Put/Call ratio, they're all definitely bearish. Just a caveat: rallies in cocoa are tradionally very resilient and the seasonality usually tops in august/september, not in july. So, let's trade it with caution...

cocoa daily chart 23.06.2015

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