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Tuesday, 05 April 2016 09:25

GolDown? | A little pullback before to resume the downward trajectory

After a strong rally just shy of the 1300 level, Gold retraced some 6.5% down to almost 1200.
Right now it seems it would like to get a little bit higher again and, as we know markets like symmetrical shapes, it could reach the 1260 level in order to depict a little head and shoulder pattern.
We talk of a head & shoulder beacause we are convinced that the odds are still in favor of downtrend prosecution.

Commitment of Traders

If we look at the COT Index, we notice that despite the recent decrease in price, the commercials are still very very very bearish. If we look at the disaggregated COT (we don't publish it here) we also see that the swap dealers continue to sell this market on behalf of the pension funds (and similar).

gold futures june 2016 commitment of traders cot bearish trading for purpose


Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the price has recently marked a top, facing a resistance level about 1280.

gold futures june 2016 chart trading for purpose

Compared to our video setup of March 14 the price fell just shy of the 1200 level. We now expect a slight rebound, maybe up to 1260, before to resume the downtrend trajectory. So, we are currently waiting for a clear opportunity to short this market once again.

Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

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