And what we see is a possible short opportunity on Mach 2016 Japanese Yen Futures or, if you prefere, a long opportunity on USD/JPY.
PatternsFirst we notice that the price has reached the top of a rising channel drawing a shooting star that, according to the Volume Spread Analysis, can also be defined as a pseudo upthrust.
Volume Zone OscillatorThe very high VZO (Volume Zone Oscillator) level and especially a clear a divergence between the price, which has risen from the previous high (January the 20th) to the last one (yesterday), and the indicator, which in the same period of time has fallen to a lower level, would suggest a possible short term reversal.
Commitment of TradersIf we look at the COT Index, the commercials bearish stance -combined with the fact that large speculators began selling- could confirm our guess.
SeasonalityFinally, looking at the seasonality we see a strong bearish trend until the first week of march that would also suggest a bearish reversal.
Of course, if you are a forex trader, you can read this signal in the opposite direction for USD/JPY, with the prospect of a rebound.
Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.